These are the slides from a presentation I recently did for a Euromoney course on Syndicated Loans in London. The first half covers the same material as my chapter in Syndicated Lending 5th ed., and as reproduced in my earlier post. The second half of the presentation (slides 42 onward) is, however, all brand new material which extends and applies the basic concepts. The new topics are as follows.
Particular Problem for Syndicators
Linear and non-linear
Predicting Individual Participants
The Error of Induction
Confirmation Bias
Life is Not Fair (In the Short Run)
… But We Don’t Easily Accept It
Backtesting – Single Deal
Backtesting – Many Deals
Backtesting – A Better Approach?
Market Flex
A Bit Less Final Hold Could Mean a Lot More Risk
Oversubscription Can Represent Uncertainty, Not Quality
What Use Is Any Of This If We Can’t Predict?
